Collected Image: Narendra Modi
In less than three years, three of India’s closest neighbors — Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and now Nepal — have seen governments collapse. The pattern has alarmed New Delhi, where policymakers fear regional instability could undermine India’s strategic and economic ambitions.
India is facing new geopolitical challenges as three of its closest neighbors have witnessed major political upheavals in just three years. After Sri Lanka’s crisis in 2022 and Bangladesh’s transition in 2024, Nepal has now seen the resignation of its prime minister (BBC), raising concerns in New Delhi about stability across South Asia.
Nepal’s Strategic Importance to India
Among India’s neighbors, Nepal holds a unique position because of its geography, history, and strategic value. The two nations share an open border of more than 1,750 kilometers, connecting Nepal with five Indian states — Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar, and West Bengal (Govt of India).
This open border allows citizens of both countries to travel, work, and live freely without passports or visas. Nearly 3.6 million Nepali citizens currently work in India (Reuters), while Nepal relies heavily on imports of fuel, food, and essential goods from its southern neighbor. Annual bilateral trade stands at nearly $8.5 billion.
Fact-Box: India–Nepal Relations
| Key Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Border Length | 1,750 km+ |
| Bilateral Trade | $8.5 billion annually |
| Nepali Workers in India | 3.6 million+ |
| Gurkha Soldiers in Indian Army | 32,000+ |
Modi Expresses Concern Over Nepal’s Crisis
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed sorrow following the recent turmoil in Nepal. Writing on X (formerly Twitter), he said: “The events in Nepal are heartbreaking. The loss of so many young lives is deeply painful. Peace, stability, and prosperity in Nepal are of utmost importance.”
Following the resignation of Nepal’s prime minister, Modi also convened an emergency security meeting with his cabinet. Analysts note that this sudden political shift, coming shortly after a high-profile visit to New Delhi, caught Indian policymakers off guard — much like Sri Lanka’s crisis in 2022.
Security and Geopolitical Concerns
Experts warn that instability in Nepal could directly affect India’s national security. Retired Indian Major General Ashok Mehta pointed out: “China’s Western Theater Command is stationed just across Nepal’s northern border. Access to the Indo-Gangetic plains also runs through Nepal. Any instability there poses a significant concern for India.”
India’s concerns are also linked to growing Chinese influence in Nepal. Both Asian giants are competing for influence in the Himalayan nation, fueling accusations of interference in its internal politics.
Historic Ties and Military Cooperation
Nepal and India share deep cultural and religious ties. Many Indian Hindus travel annually to Nepal’s shrines and temples. Since a 1950 treaty, Nepalis have been able to work freely in India. Apart from Bhutan, no other South Asian nation enjoys such an arrangement with New Delhi.
Additionally, over 32,000 Gurkha soldiers from Nepal currently serve in the Indian Army — a tradition dating back to colonial times. This close military cooperation highlights the depth of bilateral relations.
Challenges Ahead for India
The resignation of KP Sharma Oli has left a power vacuum, and it is still unclear what kind of government will emerge. Nepal’s three main political parties — UML, Nepali Congress, and the Maoist Center — all have long-standing ties with India, but protesters’ anger is now directed at these very parties.
Professor Sangita Thapliyal of Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi cautioned: “The nature of Nepal’s next leadership remains uncertain. India cannot afford a repeat of the surprises it faced in Bangladesh. Instead, it should consider supporting Nepal’s youth with jobs and scholarships.”
Regional Instability a Growing Concern
India’s broader regional diplomacy also faces challenges. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has been inactive, while ties with Pakistan remain tense. Myanmar continues to suffer from prolonged conflict. Experts argue that India’s ambition to emerge as a global power cannot be realized without stability in its neighborhood.
Major General Mehta summed it up: “India wants to be a global power, but it cannot achieve that goal unless its neighborhood remains stable.”
Last Updated: September 12, 2025
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