Will South Sudan Plunge Into Another Civil War?

Riek Machar (L) and Salva Kiir (R) - seen here together in 2020

According to a BBC news report: South Sudan is facing renewed instability following the 26 March arrest of Vice-President Riek Machar, a move that his party—the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO)—claims has effectively collapsed the fragile 2018 peace agreement.

Background

The world's youngest nation, South Sudan, gained independence from Sudan in 2011 after decades of armed struggle. However, political tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar erupted into civil war in 2013, resulting in 400,000 deaths and the displacement of 2.5 million people. The 2018 peace deal attempted to restore stability, with Machar reinstated in a unity government that was meant to lead to elections.

Recent Developments

The current crisis escalated in early March 2025, when the White Army militia, formerly allied to Machar, clashed with government forces in Upper Nile state. The situation worsened after a 7 March attack on a UN helicopter, which killed several, including a high-ranking army general.

Machar’s subsequent arrest and accusations of inciting rebellion have heightened fears of renewed civil conflict, with SPLM-IO leaders warning that the prospect for peace is now in serious jeopardy.

Challenges in Implementing the Peace Deal

While Machar’s inclusion in the government was a crucial step toward peace, other aspects of the 2018 agreement remain unfulfilled:

Security Arrangements: A unified national army of 83,000 troops was planned, but has not been fully established.

Justice System: A court to prosecute war crimes has not been set up, possibly due to resistance from government officials.

Delayed Elections: Originally scheduled for 2022, elections have been postponed multiple times, leaving Machar unable to pursue his presidential ambitions.

Geopolitical Implications and Efforts to De-escalate Tensions

The United Nations has warned that South Sudan is on the brink of full-scale civil war, with analysts fearing proxy warfare in the region. The ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan adds further instability.

Diplomatic efforts have been initiated:

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni recently met President Kiir to discuss solutions.

Ugandan troops were deployed to South Sudan as part of a longstanding bilateral agreement.

An African Union delegation visited Juba but failed to secure a meeting with Machar.

Western nations, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have urged for peaceful dialogue, though the impact remains uncertain.

Outlook

With political tensions soaring and peace efforts faltering, South Sudan faces a critical moment. If diplomacy fails, experts fear the country could plunge into another devastating war, further destabilizing the region.