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| Image: China-Taiwan |
Analysts are warning that Western intervention in the Taiwan issue could trigger China’s “nuclear blackmail” strategy and even increase the risk of nuclear conflict.
China’s Nuclear Triad Capabilities
In recent military exercises, Beijing showcased three types of nuclear warhead-capable missiles:
- JL-1: Air-launched ballistic missile
- JL-3: Submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile
- DF-61: Land-based intercontinental ballistic missile
Experts say this display signals China’s potential nuclear triad capability, allowing it to strike via air, land, and sea. Previously, China did not possess an air-based nuclear strike capability.
Credible Deterrence Against the U.S.
Eric Heginbotham, a researcher at MIT’s Security Studies Program, notes that China’s advanced strategic nuclear weapons, especially the DF-26, could be seen as a more “credible” deterrent against the United States. He explains, “This reduces U.S. military dominance and allows China to act on the Taiwan issue with less fear of nuclear retaliation.”
Learning From Russia’s Example
Yang Tai-Yuan, chairman of the Taiwan Security Association, warns, “The Chinese Communist Party could learn from Russia’s use of nuclear threats in the Ukraine war. They may threaten to use nuclear weapons to intimidate other powerful nations in disputes over Taiwan or the region.”
Yang further notes that if the United States sends troops in support of Taiwan, China could use its nuclear arsenal to deter U.S. forces stationed in the Western Pacific. “Such threats would be taken seriously by the U.S., possibly favoring diplomatic responses over direct military intervention,” he adds.
Strategic Challenges for the Region
Analysts believe that China’s rapidly expanding nuclear capability is not just defensive—it is creating new strategic challenges in the regional power balance. China’s nuclear “triad” strategy, which enables strikes via air, land, and sea, is being seen as a new security risk for the United States and its allies.
Meanwhile, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines are closely monitoring the situation. In particular, Japan and South Korea’s security policies rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, meaning China’s rapid power growth is putting pressure on their defense planning.
Taiwan at the Center of a New Nuclear Era
Global security analysts believe that the coming decade will mark a new era of nuclear deterrence, in which Taiwan is not just the center of conflict between China and the United States, but the strategic balance of the entire Indo-Pacific region.
Source: NDTV